Only 3% of residents on the island surveyed by Cubadata consider themselves "staunchly socialist," while a majority, 85.9%, believe that Cuba should change its model towards a more open one. These are just two findings drawn from a large amount of data that will be released by the "Exploring Possible Futures" panel, which the independent survey firm will make public in July.
The numbers are the result of six surveys carried out between September 2023 and February 2024 in which 10,248 people from all over the island participated, 4,552 being panelists; that is, individuals who were asked each month.
Among many other results, and by way of a preamble, the panel reveals that the difficult situation that the country is enduring, plunged into a systemic crisis, has made 73.4% of the participants in the surveys develop high levels of resilience and adaptability. Only 46% still retain some level of autonomy, and 67% are forced to scrap just to survive. And there’s more:
77.1% of respondents have been forced to change their life plans in recent months, 64.3% have even changed their personal values, 78.8% no longer consider revolutionary principles relevant, and 79% believe that socialism in Cuba is in decline.
53.8% of the respondents harbor a pessimistic view of Cuba's future. A majority agree that young people must create new models, and that Cuba must change its model towards a more open one: 87.9% and 85.9%, respectively.
Other relevant data
Only 3% of those surveyed by Cubadata for six months consider themselves "firmly socialist"; 11.2% see themselves as "reformist socialists;" 14.2%, centrist and neutral; 21.7% "liberal or pro-market;" 16% identify with "another ideology" and the largest group (33.9%) does not identify with any of the above.
65.2% of those who are "liberals and pro-market" believe that profound regime and government changes must be made, while only 13% of the "staunch socialists" do. Even within the latter group, 26.1% consider it essential to establish a multi-party system, a perception that is increasing among "reformist socialists" (29.3%); "centrists or neutrals" (43.7%), those of "other ideologies" (60.9%), "unaffiliated" (50.2%) and "liberals and pro-market" Cubans (68.5%).
Even among "firm socialists," 30.4% believe that civil society should play a more active and leading role, a figure that reaches 69.6% among "liberals and pro-market" Cubans. In terms of youth leading political and social reforms, only 13% of the former group see this as necessary, while 50% of the latter do.
Only the "staunch socialists" (86.2%) believe in the Cuban Revolution, while 59.9% of "pro-market liberals" do not believe in at all, while "reformist socialists" believe that "there are improvements to be made" (76.1%).
Between May and December 2023 respondents' perception that the Government guarantees rights and trust and satisfaction with the Government fell by 7.3%, to just over 20% overall.
In turn, respondents' perception of violent reactions by the Government decreased slightly, by 2%, probably due to strategies adopted in the regime's discourse in the face of the protests that have continued to occur in Cuba in the wake of 11-J. In recent months the regime has recognized that there are Cubans who are dissatisfied with their living conditions, and who are speaking out. The authorities have sought to explain these demonstrations as responses to an economic problem, not a political one.
Among the topics investigated in Cubadata's second panel "Empowerment towards autonomy: Resilience, occupational reconfiguration and the role of entrepreneurship," "Imaginaries and projections of the future: revolution, socialism and the diaspora," and "Inclusion and equity in the Cuban panorama: older adults, sexual and reproductive health and the situation of minorities."
The results of surveys on "Environmental and social sustainability in Cuba: Challenges and opportunities in the face of climate change" and "Resilience in action: self-care and community development strategies" will also be revealed.
In short, the results of the panel will provide an ambitious, 360-degree X-ray of current Cuban society, according to Cubadata officials.
"Exploring possible futures" follows up on the study "Politics, rights and quality of life in Cuba," carried out by the researcher Arístides A. Vara Horna, the result of nine surveys of a first panel (2022) whose results were published in DIARIO DE CUBA.
The panel study is a research technique that monitors the same group of people over time, recording repeated measurements of variables of interest at pre-established intervals. This approach offers the advantage of providing an accurate view of changes in variables over time, and allows for identification of the factors impacting such changes.
The advantages of the panel study can be summarized in three main aspects, according to Cubadata: greater precision in the measurement of changes, the possibility of analyzing causes and effects, and greater efficiency in data collection.
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