More than 73% of Cubans surveyed believe that Cuba's electoral system is neither legitimate nor fair, and 36.5% are considering abstaining in the next elections, scheduled for March 26, according to a Cubadata poll to which DIARIO DE CUBA had access.
The survey, conducted in February 2023 and in which 1,855 Cuban citizens residing on the island participated, probed participants' perceptions of the electoral system in Cuba. The findings, dissected in a study by researcher Aristides A. Vara Horna, reveal "a widespread lack of legitimacy and trust in elections, and the political system, as well as acute political alienation."
The report, "Legitimacy questioned: are elections in Cuba a reflection of the people's will?" points out that "the presence of a political opposition is considered a necessary component for democracy in Cuba, but there is also a concern about the repression and persecution faced by dissidents."
It also notes that electoral coercion is a major problem. The perception of electoral legitimacy and political alienation are identified as critical factors affecting voting intentions in Cuba, while the presence of political opposition and electoral authoritarianism are also of some importance, though to a lesser degree.
Cubadata's survey seeks answers to questions such as: "What is the electorate's perception of the legitimacy of elections in Cuba? How is the Cuban electoral system perceived in terms of authoritarianism, coercion and the repression of opposition groups? What are the consequences of the Cuban electoral system on feelings of alienation (weariness, hopelessness, disinterest, helplessness) among the electorate? How do all these variables affect electoral participation in Cuba?"
Voter Turnout
Regarding the intention to participate in next Sunday's elections, 36.5% of respondents indicated that they will not vote, while 15.3% still do not know whether they will participate or not. 25.6% of respondents said that they would vote for options indicating a lack of support for those presented, either by voting null (8.4%) or casting blank ballots (8.6%).
Regarding the intention to vote ‘Yes,’ only 7.3% of respondents responded positively. 15.3% of respondents preferred not to answer the question. A large proportion of unemployed people (45.5%) do not intend to vote, followed by private employees (46.5%) and independent workers (49.1%). A relatively large number of retirees (20.6%) intend to vote Yes.
According to the survey, those who most frequently prefer not to respond are housewives (34.4%) and retirees (20.6%).
Political Legitimacy
Most Cubadata respondents disagree that elections in Cuba are fair. In fact, 78.2% of respondents disagree with this contention, with only 7.7% agreeing or strongly agreeing with the claim that elections in Cuba are fair.
Similarly, most respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed with the idea that Cuba's electoral system is legitimate and fair. The total percentage of those who disagree with the statement is 73.6%. Only 10.8% agree or strongly agree with it.
Finally, most respondents (76.4%) also disagreed with the notion that their votes can change the Government's actions in Cuba. Only 12.8% of respondents strongly or completely agreed with this statement.
Electoral Authoritarianism
Most respondents (68.4%) agreed that there are indications of fraud in favor of the Cuban Government in the elections, while only a small percentage (14.3%) strongly disagree with this statement.
The results also show that a large proportion of respondents do not believe in the legitimacy of the Cuban electoral system, and consider it a farce (72.3%), and that the elections serve to perpetuate the Government (77.6%), and that the elections in Cuba serve to favor government allies (80.2%).
An Opposing Presence
Most of those interviewed agreed that there are more and more Cubans who oppose the government (84.8%) and that the presence of these dissidents is necessary for democracy in Cuba (75.4%).
Most respondents agreed that the Government harasses/persecutes dissidents (77.1%) and that they are subjected to repression, intimidation and violence by the Government (73.9%).
As for the abstention proposed by the opposition, opinions are more divided, according to Cubadata. 36.2% believe that opponents' appeals to abstain from voting are increasingly being heard. 23.8% agree with this option, and 30.6% disapprove.
Electoral Coercion
A significant proportion of Cubans interviewed report being subjected to electoral coercion. For example, 51.5% reported feeling pressured or coerced to vote in a certain way, while 21.8% reported receiving promises of gifts or benefits to vote in a certain way.
In addition, a significant proportion of respondents said they were threatened or intimidated to vote in a certain way (29.6%). 30.4% stated that someone in their family was coerced or forced to vote in a certain way, while 34.6% said that someone in their neighborhood was.
Electoral Alienation
A high proportion of Cubans consulted by Cubadata agreed that the Government's political decisions are very confusing (79%), that they feel that their votes do not matter (79%), and that the Government does not accept the people's opinions (76.8%).
In addition, a considerable number of respondents are reluctant to or avoid participating in political or electoral activities (74.6%), and have lost interest in political and electoral issues (78%).
"We hypothesize that the electorate's perception of the illegitimacy of elections in Cuba may be owing to the lack of real political competition and the absence of political pluralism in the country," he said.
According to Aristides A. Vara Horna, "citizens may feel that their votes do not have a significant impact on the outcome of the elections, and that the process is neither fair nor transparent."
"Indeed, it is very likely that the Cuban electoral system will be perceived as mostly authoritarian, due to the lack of political freedoms and repression of the political opposition. The Government may be seen as controlling the electoral process and limiting citizens' political participation and freedom of expression and association. This would generate a feeling of distrust and alienation in the electorate," he says.
Conclusions
In general, the study points to "a great distrust and skepticism towards the electoral system and the Government in Cuba, as well as a perception that political opponents are persecuted and repressed."
"These results suggest that there is a need for political and social reform in Cuba to foster confidence and citizens' participation in the electoral process, and democracy in general.
The widespread perception that the electoral and political system in Cuba is not fair, legitimate or effective has a negative impact on electoral participation and citizen participation, in general; and the signs of fraud in favor of the Government in the elections, the lack of transparency in the Cuban electoral system, and of political pluralism in the country, explain the high levels of public distrust.
Moreover, the large proportion of respondents who do not believe in the legitimacy of the Cuban electoral system suggests that there is a perception that the electoral process is not really free and fair.
As regards electoral coercion, Cubadata concludes that "this type of practice violates the basic principles of free and fair elections and undermines the legitimacy of the democratic process in Cuba. It can restrict the ability of citizens to express their political preferences freely and autonomously, which can distort the results of elections and affect the quality of political representation."
The high proportion of respondents who are reluctant, or avoid participating in political or electoral activities, and have lost interest in political and electoral issues, suggests a lack of civic engagement and widespread disenchantment with politics in Cuba.
Finally, the results suggest that "respondents' perceptions of the regime's legitimacy and its degree of authoritarianism, as well as their level of political alienation and perception of political coercion, are important factors influencing their decision to participate in the elections."
Methodology
The Cubadata survey was aimed at men and women between 18 and 75 years of age, from all regions of Cuba. The sample was non-probabilistic, and was obtained between February 18 and March 6, 2023 via a cell phone application.
Of the 1,855 people who completed the survey, 596 were women (32.1%) and 1,259 were men (67.9%), the majority from Havana.
The data weas grouped by region for comparison, with 11.9% from the western region, 25.6% from the central region, 31.6% from the eastern region and 30.7% from Havana.
To obtain valid population information, Cubadata designed a survey based on constructs, which are scales based on the linear combination of several items or questions functioning as its indicators. The use of constructs facilitates controlling for measurement errors, in addition to guaranteeing the validity of the variables studied.
The reliability and validity of the constructs was performed using the SPSS program. In this case, the variables have high levels of internal consistency if McDonald's Omega values are greater than 0.708. As for validity, it was analyzed using convergent validity techniques, where the factorial loads must be greater than 0.708, and the Average Variance Extracted (AVE) was estimated. An acceptable threshold is a value equal to or greater than 0.5, which is equivalent to saying that the latent construct obtained an explained variance greater than 50% (Hair et al., 2014a; Hair et al., 2014b; Ringle et al., 2015).
The measurement model in this case, says Cubadata, is reliable and valid for the sample, with Omega values between 0.788 and 0.94; and with the AVE higher than 68%. That is, the constructs have adequate levels of reliability for their internal consistency and convergent validity.