Of the laws that are supposed to be passed in Cuba through 2028, according to the legislative schedule published in the Official Gazette of the Republic in February, five spark the highest hopes, as they address serious problems faced by the population. The history of laws already enacted by the Government that restrict Cubans' exercise of rights, or turn them into dead letters, triggers doubts about the new ones.
Although the preliminary drafts of the future laws have not yet been published, their titles raise questions about their contents and the rights they should guarantee citizens. These are the laws on pardons, housing, association, emigration and citizenship.
The pardon law is especially promising for Cubans who have been incarcerated, and their families. However, it is striking that its approval is not expected until December 2027, despite the fact that Cuba has the second highest prison population in the world, as confirmed in January by World Prison Brief (WPB), an online database on the world's prison systems.
The Cuban government often makes room in its prisons during certain periods through the massive release of prisoners under pardons. This, however, does not tend to benefit political prisoners, whose existence on the island the authorities deny.
As of March 13, according to the NGO Prisoners Defenders, the Cuban regime was holding 1,067 inmates for political reasons. International organizations, including the European Union, have called on Havana to issue an amnesty to those inmates, mainly those serving prison sentences for participating in the July 2021 anti-government protests known as 11-J.
Cuban authorities have asserted that there is no legal possibility of amnesty on the island. However, pardons already exist, and are one of the eight legal vias for the release of prisoners pointed out by jurists.
Why does the regime need a new law to pardon prisoners? What is the reason for its late approval, taking into account the massive prison population in the country? Will it be a way to release the 11-J protesters belatedly, after many of them have served all or most of their sentences?
Will the new law benefit Cuban political prisoners or will it, instead, obstruct any pardon of these inmates? A whole series of questions arise with the mere announcement of the bill.
Another law that stirs great expectations is the housing law, which is supposed to guarantee the constitutional right to decent housing and address one of the problems that most affects Cubans.
In 2023 the Cuban government delivered 16,065 dwellings, 65% of those called for in its own plan. The housing deficit in the country, however, exceeds 856,500 units, according to official figures released on the annual balance sheet of the Ministry of Construction at the end of February.
This means that even if, exceptionally, the government had hit the targets in its own plan last year, it would have met little more than 3% of the need on the island, one that is increasingly pressing due to the deterioration of the housing stock and Cubans' lack of resources of Cubans to remedy it.
The law that was supposed address this problem will not be approved until July 2025, according to the schedule, despite the fact that in December 2022 Justice Minister Oscar Silvera Martínez stated that this and other laws were "in an advanced state of preparation."
This law, included on the calendar approved by the National Assembly of Popular Power in 2019, should have been submitted for the representatives' consideration in December 2020.
Although it is striking that such a law so vital for the population has been postponed three times, the most important question now is whether Cuba will have the material conditions to guarantee the right to decent housing by July 2025.
If not, will the government stop criminalizing families —mainly single women with several children— who are forced to squat on vacant premises or dwellings in order to put a roof over their heads?
Will the Law admit legal formulas proscribed until now, such as bank mortgages? Will the construction and leasing of housing by foreign companies be authorized? Will young people outside the military sector have access to State financing to own a home like military personnel do? Here hopes are high, but skepticism is equally great.
In July 2025 a new association law is due to be passed in Cuba. Will this law guarantee the people’s right to freedom of association, in accordance with international law? Will civil society organizations not subordinated to the government enjoy legal recognition? Will they be able to access lawful sources of funding without being criminalized?
There is also no certainty about workers' ability to create and join unions not subordinated to the official Central de Trabajadores de Cuba, or a law to put an end to the Communist Party's control over the statutes, objectives, constitution, leadership structure and functioning of these organizations.
Also in July, but in 2024, a new migration law and a citizenship law are to be approved, both being thorny issues. Although they are different regulations, they should complement each other because there are more than three million Cubans living outside the island. The figure is considerable, and is on the rise, as many Cubans are opting for emigration in the face of the never-ending crisis in Cuba.
Upon being declared "emigres," Cubans lose their residency on the island, which also entails a loss of political rights, such as that to vote in elections and referendums.
However, the Government aims for those emigrants to bolster the Cuban economy through investments, as it stated in November at the 4th The Nation and Emigration Conference.
A week before the start of the event, the Director General of Consular Affairs and Cuban Residents Abroad at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX), Ernesto Soberón, announced the future disappearance of "the figure of the emigre", which, according to his words, will depend on the contributions of these Cuban citizens to the island's development.
The questions here are also numerous, including basic doubts such as the loss of the right to retirement benefits for nationals who emigrate, or whether the new laws will eliminate the figure of "émigré," and whether those living in other countries will be able to vote in elections and referendums in Cuba.
Will the repatriation requirement to return to reside on the island after two years abroad disappear, and will this procedure be required only for those Cubans who have expressly renounced their citizenship?
At the aforementioned press conference, Soberón also highlighted the repeal of the expensive and frequent extensions of the Cuban passport imposed on emigres, as well as the extension of this travel document's validity period, all measures called for by Cubans for decades.
He avoided addressing that, although the Constitution recognizes the right to hold several citizenships, emigres can only enter Cuba with a travel document issued by Havana. Will this requirement disappear under the new rules?
A new labor code is also due to be approved in December 2024. The law that will be replaced restricts freedom of association and the right to strike. Will Cubans recover those rights, won before the triumph of the Revolution, under the new code?
Many perceive opportunities to move forward, even if their hopes are tinged with wariness. For now essential questions remain: will this law expressly proscribe labor discrimination on political grounds, and will it protect Cubans sent by the regime on its "missions" from the plundering of their salaries and violations of their freedoms?